12 Assembly segments will go to the polls in just 3 days. TRS once again bet on Telangana sentiment while Congress and TDP bet on candidates and cadre. Despite having strong candidates and cadre, TDP and Congress candidates are struggling in most of these segments due to Telangana sentiment wave. But, TRS and BJP candidates are facing tough fight in 9-10 Assembly constituencies.
Babli project issue has not changed political equations drastically but helped TDP candidates to regain its traditional votes. Congress candidates are looking strong in electioneering (!). So, things may change in the last 2 days. Campaigning will end on Sunday.
Analysis of 12 Assembly segments:
1. Siddipet: Harish Rao is expected to win here easily. Congress (T. Srinivas Goud) and TDP (Babu Mohan) candidates are not in a position to give tough fight due to Harish Rao’s strong image and lack of cadre. He is expected to win with a huge majority. Only KCR and Harish Rao represented this segment in the last 25 years. Siddipet is their family stronghold.
Harish Rao is far ahead of others in the campaigning. His “vote-note” campaign is a huge success even before the announcement of schedule. Congress candidate is in second position while TDP candidate is in third place. Siddipet is the only segment where TRS is not depending that much on Telangana sentiment.
2. Warangal West: TRS candidate, D. Vinayabhaskar is ahead due to strong Telangana sentiment. This is one of most politically active segments in the state. Reddys and minority votes will play crucial role here.
Congress and TDP candidates are betting on strong cadre and TDP improved its chances due to Vem Narender Reddy. But, it is difficult for them to withstand Telangana sentiment wave.
3. Mancherial: Telugu Desam Party has high hopes on this segment. TDP and TRS are in tough contest. TDP candidate, Gone Hanumantha Rao is giving tough fight to TRS candidate, Ravindar Reddy despite strong Telangana sentiment. Congress Party has no chances here. TRS candidate is betting on Telangana sentiment only while TDP candidate is betting on good image and strong cadre.
4. Chennur (SC): TRS candidate, Nallala Odelu has slight edge over Congress candidate, G. Vinod. TRS candidate is betting on labour votes and Telangana sentiment is very strong even in remote areas in this Assembly segment. Congress has advantage of money and cadre while it is struggling with group politics. Odelu is the poorest candidate among all contestants in these by-elections.
5. Sirpur: Triangular contest between TRS, TDP and Congress. TRS has slight edge due to sentiment wave but TDP has strong cadre in this segment while Congress fielded Indrakaran Reddy who is very strong in electioneering.
Labour votes are crucial in this segment which was once a TDP bastion. TRS candidate, Kaveti Sammaiah may win here. But, Congress is struggling here due to group politics.
6. Nizamabad Urban: PCC president, D. Srinivas is using all his resources to win from this high profile segment. He is betting minority votes while BJP candidate is betting on Telangana sentiment. Congress candidate is far ahead of BJP and TDP in electioneering but BJP and TRS are using all their resources to win from here.
D. Srinivas’s development slogan is aiding him (he will become a minister if he wins from here) in the campaigning but Telangana sentiment may spoil his plans in the last minute. D. Srinivas has been planning for this election for the last 3-4 months. But, things changes drastically after the campaigning of KCR. We have to see whether DS can overcome Telangana wave.
7. Yellareddy: TRS candidate, Ravinder Reddy has slight edge here but TDP and Congress are giving tough fight but Telangana sentiment is very strong in this segment. Congress candidate, Shabbir Ali is betting on electioneering while TDP candidate is giving tough fight due to traditional vote bank as Yellareddy was a TDP bastion till 1999 elections.
8. Dharmapuri: Tough fight between TRS and Congress. Congress candidate narrowly lost here in 2009 Assembly elections but he worked hard on development using ZP funds. TRS candidate, Koppula Eshwar laid all his hopes on Telangana sentiment. There is some sentiment over Congress candidate here due to narrow loss in 2009. BJP votes may go to TRS.
9. Koratla: Tough fight between TRS and TDP. TDP candidate, S. Viswanatham is betting on electioneering and strong cadre while TRS is marching ahead by utilising Telangana sentiment. Koratla municipal chairman, Gaphoor joined TDP which pushed Congress to third place. Congress candidate, J. Ratnakar Rao is struggling here due to non-cooperation of Kommireddy Ramulu group.
10. Sircilla: KCR son KTR is contesting from this high-profile constituency. K. Mahendar Reddy is contesting on Congress ticket from here. Mahendar Reddy has good following and sentiment as he narrowly lost from here in 2009 elections. But, KTR strengthened his base in the last 6 months and Telangana sentiment is also very high in Sircilla. TDP candidate may not win but will change the fortunes of TRS and Congress candidates.
11. Vemulawada: Tough fight between TRS and Congress candidates. Congress candidate, Adi Srinivas narrowly lost from here and is using BC card to win from here. TRS candidate, Chennamaneni Ramesh laid all hopes on Telangana sentiment and BJP’s 20,000 votes. But, his German relations are hampering his chances.
Vemulawada used to be a TDP stronghold but lost its base due to Telangana wave. It even struggled to find a good candidate.
12. Huzurabad: TRS candidate, Etela Rajender is leading over TDP candidate. TDP strengthened its position due to support from Reddy community. But, TRS may win from here due to Telangana sentiment and good image of Rajender.
Congress is in third place here as Reddy community is supporting TDP in stead of Congress candidate, Krishna Mohan Rao.
Final verdict: Without Telangana sentiment, TRS may not win in more than 3-4 segments. But, strong Telangana sentiment may help them to win 7-9 seats. Congress party may win in 2-3 segments while TDP may win in 1-3 segments. Congress fielded very strong candidates in all the segments while TDP laid all hopes on strong cadre. Before the emergence of TRS, most of these Assembly segments were TDP strongholds. Now, Telugu Desam is giving tough fight to TRS and Congress in just 4-5 constituencies only.
BJP-TRS alliance may backfire in some segments due to split in minority votes but BJP has 5,000-20,000 votes in most of these segments. All eyes are now on Nizamabad Urban segment. If D. Srinivas wins from here, political equations may drastically change.
Author: K. Venkata Ramana (Journalist)
The above analysis showing some edge to TDP there is no way … TDP will have tough time in alol the seats TDP will be sipeout from Telanagana Chandra babu can do any magics like Babli his political magics people are aware of now. Congress may give some competetion to TRS as it’s a national party and it’s a decision maker.